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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 29

Kick-off

Sat 15 Mar 2025

15:00

Venue

Etihad Stadium

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester City Win

57%

Manchester City

1.75

20%

Draw

5.10

23%

Brighton

4.28

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.0%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

7.8%

Draw

3 – 1

7.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.32

Manchester City xG

Total xG

3.77

1.45

Brighton xG

57%
20%
23%
Manchester CityDrawBrighton

1.75

57%

Home win

5.10

20%

Draw

4.28

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

89%

Over 1.5

1.12

11%

Under 1.5

9.09

73%

Over 2.5

1.37

27%

Under 2.5

3.70

52%

Over 3.5

1.92

48%

Under 3.5

2.08

33%

Over 4.5

3.03

67%

Under 4.5

1.49

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

69%

BTTS Yes

1.45

31%

BTTS No

3.23

Clean Sheet

23%

Manchester City

4.26

10%

Brighton

10.18

Win to Nil

13%

Manchester City

7.48

2%

Brighton

43.50

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.3 3.3 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1
1 5.3 7.8 5.6 2.7 1.0 0.3
2 6.2 9.0 6.5 3.2 1.1 0.3
3 4.8 7.0 5.0 2.4 0.9 0.3
4 2.8 4.0 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1
5 1.3 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.320
λ Away (xG) 1.450
Total xG 3.770
League avg home goals 1.447
League avg away goals 1.476
Manchester City attack strength 1.305
Manchester City defence strength 0.887
Brighton attack strength 1.108
Brighton defence strength 1.228
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 66 / 66