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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 38

Kick-off

Sun 24 May 2026

16:00

Venue

Etihad Stadium

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester City Win

68%

Manchester City

1.46

20%

Draw

4.94

11%

Aston Villa

8.85

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

11.9%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 0

10.8%

Home win

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.21

Manchester City xG

Total xG

3.02

0.81

Aston Villa xG

68%
20%
Manchester CityDrawAston Villa

1.46

68%

Home win

4.94

20%

Draw

8.85

11%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

58%

Over 2.5

1.72

42%

Under 2.5

2.38

36%

Over 3.5

2.78

64%

Under 3.5

1.56

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

1.98

50%

BTTS No

2.02

Clean Sheet

45%

Manchester City

2.25

11%

Aston Villa

9.16

Win to Nil

30%

Manchester City

3.28

1%

Aston Villa

81.07

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.9 3.9 1.6 0.4 0.1
1 10.8 8.7 3.5 1.0 0.2
2 11.9 9.6 3.9 1.1 0.2
3 8.8 7.1 2.9 0.8 0.2
4 4.9 3.9 1.6 0.4 0.1
5 2.2 1.7 0.7 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.215
λ Away (xG) 0.809
Total xG 3.024
League avg home goals 1.471
League avg away goals 1.224
Manchester City attack strength 1.410
Manchester City defence strength 0.695
Aston Villa attack strength 0.951
Aston Villa defence strength 1.068
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 75 / 75