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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 34

Kick-off

Tue 22 Apr 2025

20:00

Venue

Etihad Stadium

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester City Win

51%

Manchester City

1.94

22%

Draw

4.58

27%

Aston Villa

3.74

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

9.5%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.4%

Home win

1 – 0

6.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.98

Manchester City xG

Total xG

3.35

1.38

Aston Villa xG

51%
22%
27%
Manchester CityDrawAston Villa

1.94

51%

Home win

4.58

22%

Draw

3.74

27%

Away win

Goals Markets

85%

Over 1.5

1.18

15%

Under 1.5

6.67

65%

Over 2.5

1.54

35%

Under 2.5

2.86

43%

Over 3.5

2.33

57%

Under 3.5

1.75

25%

Over 4.5

4.00

75%

Under 4.5

1.33

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

64%

BTTS Yes

1.55

36%

BTTS No

2.81

Clean Sheet

25%

Manchester City

3.97

14%

Aston Villa

7.21

Win to Nil

13%

Manchester City

7.71

4%

Aston Villa

26.93

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.5 4.8 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.1
1 6.9 9.5 6.6 3.0 1.0 0.3
2 6.8 9.4 6.5 3.0 1.0 0.3
3 4.5 6.2 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.2
4 2.2 3.1 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.975
λ Away (xG) 1.378
Total xG 3.353
League avg home goals 1.452
League avg away goals 1.423
Manchester City attack strength 1.383
Manchester City defence strength 0.955
Aston Villa attack strength 1.015
Aston Villa defence strength 0.984
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 71 / 71