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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Sun 19 Apr 2026

16:30

Venue

Etihad Stadium

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester City Win

39%

Manchester City

2.55

29%

Draw

3.41

31%

Arsenal

3.18

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.1%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.5%

Home win

2 – 1

8.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.45

Manchester City xG

Total xG

2.73

1.28

Arsenal xG

39%
29%
31%
Manchester CityDrawArsenal

2.55

39%

Home win

3.41

29%

Draw

3.18

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

51%

Over 2.5

1.96

49%

Under 2.5

2.04

29%

Over 3.5

3.45

71%

Under 3.5

1.41

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.75

43%

BTTS No

2.33

Clean Sheet

28%

Manchester City

3.60

23%

Arsenal

4.26

Win to Nil

11%

Manchester City

9.17

7%

Arsenal

13.55

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.5 8.3 5.3 2.3 0.7 0.2
1 9.5 12.1 7.7 3.3 1.1 0.3
2 6.9 8.8 5.6 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 3.3 4.2 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.450
λ Away (xG) 1.280
Total xG 2.730
League avg home goals 1.405
League avg away goals 1.270
Manchester City attack strength 1.323
Manchester City defence strength 0.820
Arsenal attack strength 1.228
Arsenal defence strength 0.780
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 69 / 70