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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out Wolves 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Wolves 2-1 at Anfield, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 2.55 xG and Wolves 1.23 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.28 / defence 0.82 against Wolves attack 0.98 / defence 1.31, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 65% | Draw 19% | Wolves 16%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 64%, Wolves 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Wolves's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights