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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Liverpool run riot with a 5-2 hammering of West Ham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat West Ham 5-2 at Anfield, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.66 xG and West Ham 1.17 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Liverpool beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. West Ham outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against West Ham attack 0.97 / defence 1.12, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 46% | Draw 30% | West Ham 24%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 62%, West Ham 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

West Ham's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights