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Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out West Ham 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat West Ham 2-1 at Anfield, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.76 xG and West Ham 0.83 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.29 / defence 0.74 against West Ham attack 0.78 / defence 0.96, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 59% | Draw 23% | West Ham 17%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 64%, West Ham 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

West Ham's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights