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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Liverpool run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Tottenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Tottenham 5-1 at Anfield, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 2.00 xG and Tottenham 1.16 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Liverpool beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.26 / defence 0.77 against Tottenham attack 1.06 / defence 1.09, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 57% | Draw 21% | Tottenham 22%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 63%, Tottenham 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Tottenham's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.45. Form held, and they took the win. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.37 average — above their attacking norm. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights