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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Nottingham Forest run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Liverpool.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Liverpool 0-3 at Anfield, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.99 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.85 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Liverpool fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Nottingham Forest outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.15 / defence 0.92 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 64% | Draw 21% | Nottingham Forest 15%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Nottingham Forest win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 65%, Nottingham Forest 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.51. Form was overturned, with Nottingham Forest winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights