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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Liverpool run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Newcastle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Newcastle 4-1 at Anfield, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.15 xG and Newcastle 0.97 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Liverpool beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 0.89 / defence 0.89 against Newcastle attack 0.86 / defence 0.89, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 36% | Draw 37% | Newcastle 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Liverpool win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 62%, Newcastle 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Newcastle's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liverpool 1.97 PPG, Newcastle 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liverpool win broke the near-deadlock. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Newcastle (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights