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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Manchester United defy the odds to beat Liverpool 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester United beat Liverpool 1-2 at Anfield, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 2.24 xG and Manchester United 0.96 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Liverpool fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Manchester United outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.28 / defence 0.91 against Manchester United attack 0.89 / defence 1.20, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 66% | Draw 20% | Manchester United 14%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Manchester United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 64%, Manchester United 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Manchester United's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Manchester United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Manchester United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights