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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Manchester City defy the odds to beat Liverpool 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester City beat Liverpool 1-2 at Anfield, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.46 xG and Manchester City 1.32 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Manchester City attack 1.15 / defence 0.95, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 38% | Draw 31% | Manchester City 31%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Manchester City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 63%, Manchester City 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Manchester City's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liverpool 1.98 PPG, Manchester City 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Manchester City win broke the near-deadlock. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights