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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Liverpool run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Ipswich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Ipswich 4-1 at Anfield, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 2.03 xG and Ipswich 0.98 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Liverpool beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.23 / defence 0.78 against Ipswich attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 60% | Draw 24% | Ipswich 16%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 64%, Ipswich 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Ipswich's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.53. Form held, and they took the win. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.36 average — above their attacking norm. Ipswich (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights