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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liverpool and Crystal Palace share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Anfield, Regular Season - 38, as Liverpool and Crystal Palace drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 2.25 xG and Crystal Palace 1.22 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Liverpool fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.43 / defence 0.85 against Crystal Palace attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 61% | Draw 20% | Crystal Palace 20%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 65%, Crystal Palace 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights