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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liverpool and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool and Burnley finished level at 1-1 at Anfield, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.85 xG and Burnley 0.95 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Liverpool fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Burnley attack 0.86 / defence 1.34, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 56% | Draw 27% | Burnley 17%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 63%, Burnley 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Burnley's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liverpool 2.02 PPG, Burnley 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights