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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liverpool and Brentford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Anfield, Regular Season - 38, as Liverpool and Brentford drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.75 xG and Brentford 1.05 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Brentford attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 52% | Draw 26% | Brentford 22%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 63%, Brentford 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Brentford's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights