Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arsenal at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Liverpool vs Arsenal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arsenal make the trip to Anfield to face Liverpool in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Liverpool (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liverpool's home record at Anfield: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Arsenal have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Arsenal have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Arsenal are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Liverpool lead 2W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Liverpool — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Arsenal — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 63% versus Arsenal 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 59% | Arsenal 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 1.08 xG and Arsenal 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 0.949 / defence 0.964 | Arsenal attack 1.009 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.173. Arsenal's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Liverpool games / 46 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liverpool 33% | Draw 30% | Arsenal 36%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Arsenal 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arsenal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Liverpool 60% | Arsenal 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 33% | Draw 30% | Arsenal 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Liverpool 1.08 / Arsenal 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 0.949 / def 0.964 | Arsenal attack 1.009 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Arsenal xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liverpool vs Arsenal kick off?
Liverpool vs Arsenal kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Liverpool 0 - 1 Arsenal.
Where is Liverpool vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Arsenal part of?
Liverpool vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 33% chance of winning, Arsenal a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Liverpool and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Liverpool vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Arsenal?
Record (9 meetings): Liverpool 2W | Draws 5 | Arsenal 2W.
What form are Liverpool and Arsenal in?
Liverpool (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Arsenal (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Liverpool's attack rating (0.95) and Arsenal's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arsenal's attack (1.01x) against Liverpool's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
33%
3.00
30%
3.32
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.22
1.14
Arsenal xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.14 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Liverpool come into this having played 46 games, going 21W 12D 13L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arsenal sit at 2.30 PPG from 46 outings (33W 7D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Liverpool — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Liverpool's home form reads 11W 8D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Arsenal have taken 2.04 points per game from 23 outings (14W 5D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Liverpool are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 1.83 scored and 0.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Arsenal in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liverpool and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 21W 12D 13L in their last 46 games (1.63 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 33W 7D 6L in their last 46 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 1.78 PPG; Arsenal away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Arsenal in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liverpool have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arsenal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Liverpool
5
Draws
3
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Arsenal?
From 10 meetings on record, Liverpool have won 2, Arsenal have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Arsenal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 61%, Arsenal 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Liverpool) and 44% (Arsenal).
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Arsenal in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liverpool play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Liverpool's recent matches and 44% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Liverpool vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Liverpool's recent games and 44% of Arsenal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Liverpool and Arsenal tend to score early?
Liverpool have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Arsenal in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out Liverpool 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Liverpool 0-1 at Anfield, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.08 xG and Arsenal 1.14 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Liverpool fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Arsenal attack 1.01 / defence 0.78, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 33% | Draw 30% | Arsenal 36%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 59%, Arsenal 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Arsenal's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.63. That form edge translated into the three points. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Arsenal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.