🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out Arsenal 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Arsenal 1-0 at Anfield, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.58 xG and Arsenal 1.34 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Arsenal landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.42 / defence 1.02 against Arsenal attack 1.06 / defence 0.75, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 43% | Draw 24% | Arsenal 32%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 65%, Arsenal 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Arsenal's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liverpool 2.25 PPG, Arsenal 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liverpool win broke the near-deadlock. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights