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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liverpool and Arsenal share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Anfield, Regular Season - 36, as Liverpool and Arsenal drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.47 xG and Arsenal 1.24 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.44 / defence 0.78 against Arsenal attack 1.15 / defence 0.71, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 42% | Draw 26% | Arsenal 32%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 64%, Arsenal 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Arsenal's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liverpool 2.25 PPG, Arsenal 2.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Liverpool (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights