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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Wolves run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Leicester.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolves beat Leicester 0-3 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.98 xG and Wolves 1.66 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Leicester fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Wolves outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against Wolves attack 1.04 / defence 1.33, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leicester 44% | Draw 24% | Wolves 32%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Wolves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 65%, Wolves 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leicester's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Wolves's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Leicester arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Wolves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights