Leicester 0-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fulham at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Power Stadium plays host to Leicester versus Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Tuesday 3 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Leicester's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leicester at King Power Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fulham (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Leicester goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leicester 62% and Fulham 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 64% | Fulham 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.33 xG and Fulham 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.844 / defence 0.979 | Fulham attack 1.113 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.293. Data: 55 Leicester games / 17 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 34% | Draw 28% | Fulham 38%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Fulham 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Leicester 30% | Fulham 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 34% | Draw 28% | Fulham 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Leicester 1.33 / Fulham 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.844 / def 0.979 | Fulham attack 1.113 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Fulham (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Fulham xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Fulham kick off?
Leicester vs Fulham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 3 January 2023 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Fulham?
Leicester 0 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Leicester vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Fulham part of?
Leicester vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 34% chance of winning, Fulham a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Leicester and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Fulham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leicester and Fulham in?
Leicester (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Fulham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Leicester's attack at 0.84x the league average against Fulham's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.11x) against Leicester's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
34%
2.92
28%
3.57
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.74
1.41
Fulham xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
8%
11.95
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Leicester and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Leicester and 1.41 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Leicester have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 19W 12D 24L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham's form line: 29W 12D 14L from 55 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fulham are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Leicester.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Leicester have posted 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (12W 6D 9L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 13W 6D 8L from 27 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leicester are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.13 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Fulham in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 19W 12D 24L in their last 55 games (1.25 PPG), while Fulham have gone 29W 12D 14L in their last 55 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.56 PPG; Fulham away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Leicester or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leicester have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Fulham in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Fulham go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leicester have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Leicester
0
Draws
4
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Fulham?
From 4 meetings on record, Leicester have won 0, Fulham have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Leicester 0-2 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 44%, Fulham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Leicester) and 56% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leicester keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fulham in 37%; Leicester have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Leicester's recent matches and 56% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Leicester's matches and 56% of Fulham's.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Leicester 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Leicester 0-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.33 xG and Fulham 1.41 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Leicester fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Fulham attack 1.11 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 34% | Draw 28% | Fulham 38%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 64%, Fulham 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.