Leicester vs Brighton – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Leicester's attack at 0.86x the league average against Brighton's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brighton's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brighton Win
33%
3.06
26%
3.82
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Leicester xG
Total xG
3.07
1.63
Brighton xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
6%
15.62
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Brighton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Leicester and Brighton expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Leicester and 1.63 for Brighton, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Brighton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.