Leicester 1-0 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Bournemouth travel to King Power Stadium to take on Leicester. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leicester stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Leicester have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Leicester's home record at King Power Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bournemouth — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bournemouth have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bournemouth's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Leicester) versus 1.10 (Bournemouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Leicester register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Bournemouth in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Leicester, 2 for Bournemouth and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Bournemouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Leicester in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Bournemouth in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leicester 59% and Bournemouth 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 61% | Bournemouth 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.32 xG and Bournemouth 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.751 / defence 1.059 | Bournemouth attack 0.947 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.467. Leicester's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Leicester games / 44 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 32% | Draw 29% | Bournemouth 39%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Bournemouth 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 80% | Bournemouth 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 32% | Draw 29% | Bournemouth 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Leicester 1.32 / Bournemouth 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.751 / def 1.059 | Bournemouth attack 0.947 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Bournemouth xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Bournemouth kick off?
Leicester vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Bournemouth?
Leicester 1 - 0 Bournemouth.
Where is Leicester vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Bournemouth part of?
Leicester vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 32% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Leicester and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Bournemouth?
Record (2 meetings): Leicester 0W | Draws 0 | Bournemouth 2W.
What form are Leicester and Bournemouth in?
Leicester (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Leicester's attack rating (0.75) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
32%
3.15
29%
3.40
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.79
1.47
Bournemouth xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
7%
13.73
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Leicester and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Leicester and 1.47 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leicester come into this having played 44 games, going 24W 7D 13L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Leicester, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bournemouth sit at 1.27 PPG from 44 outings (15W 11D 18L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bournemouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Leicester carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Bournemouth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Leicester's home form reads 14W 3D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Bournemouth have taken 1.14 points per game from 22 outings (7W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leicester are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.41 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Early Season
Bournemouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 24W 7D 13L in their last 44 games (1.80 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Bournemouth away?
Leicester's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 2.05 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leicester and Bournemouth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Leicester's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Leicester
0
Draws
3
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Bournemouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Leicester have won 1, Bournemouth have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Bournemouth 2-0 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 54%, Bournemouth 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Leicester and 77% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leicester keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Bournemouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Leicester's games and 68% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leicester vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Leicester's matches and 77% of Bournemouth's.
Shock result as Leicester defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Bournemouth 1-0 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.32 xG and Bournemouth 1.47 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bournemouth landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.75 / defence 1.06 against Bournemouth attack 0.95 / defence 1.18, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 32% | Draw 29% | Bournemouth 39%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Leicester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 61%, Bournemouth 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Bournemouth's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Leicester arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.