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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Leeds defy the odds to beat West Ham 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leeds beat West Ham 2-1 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.13 xG and West Ham 1.24 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Leeds beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against West Ham attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leeds 33% | Draw 29% | West Ham 38%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Leeds win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 50%, West Ham 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leeds's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

West Ham's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights