Leeds 3-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leeds at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leeds vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Leeds host Burnley at Elland Road in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 January 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Leeds — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Leeds, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leeds's home record at Elland Road: 2W 4D 3L from 9 Premier League appearances (1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Burnley have gone 0W 4D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Leeds) versus 0.90 (Burnley). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Leeds have won 0, Burnley 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Leeds in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Burnley in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leeds 62% versus Burnley 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 50% | Burnley 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 1.22 xG and Burnley 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 0.803 / defence 1.301 | Burnley attack 0.641 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.306. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Leeds's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Leeds games / 16 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leeds 39% | Draw 29% | Burnley 32%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Burnley 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leeds are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leeds offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Leeds 67% | Burnley 56% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jan 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 39% | Draw 29% | Burnley 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Leeds 1.22 / Burnley 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 0.803 / def 1.301 | Burnley attack 0.641 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Leeds (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Burnley xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leeds vs Burnley kick off?
Leeds vs Burnley kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 January 2022 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Burnley?
Leeds 3 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Leeds vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Burnley part of?
Leeds vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 39% chance of winning, Burnley a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Leeds and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Leeds vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Burnley?
Record (1 meetings): Leeds 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Leeds and Burnley in?
Leeds (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Burnley (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Leeds's attack rating (0.80) and Burnley's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Leeds's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.48
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Leeds xG
Total xG
2.31
1.09
Burnley xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Leeds and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Leeds and 1.09 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Leeds have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 3W 6D 7L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Leeds is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley's form line: 1W 8D 7L from 16 games, 0.69 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leeds on 0.94 PPG, Burnley on 0.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Leeds have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 0W 4D 4L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leeds come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leeds are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 0.94 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leeds have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leeds and Burnley in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 3W 6D 7L in their last 16 games (0.94 PPG), while Burnley have gone 1W 8D 7L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Burnley away?
Leeds's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 1.12 PPG; Burnley away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leeds and Burnley runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Premier League, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Leeds's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Leeds
2
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Leeds have won 2, Burnley have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Leeds 3-1 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 62%, Burnley 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Leeds) and 50% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leeds play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Leeds's games and 62% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leeds vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Leeds's recent games and 50% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Leeds cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Burnley 3-1 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.22 xG and Burnley 1.09 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Leeds beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 0.80 / defence 1.30 against Burnley attack 0.64 / defence 1.27, drawn from 18/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 39% | Draw 29% | Burnley 32%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 50%, Burnley 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leeds 0.94 PPG, Burnley 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leeds win broke the near-deadlock. Leeds (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.