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Leeds cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Burnley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leeds beat Burnley 3-1 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 2.06 xG and Burnley 1.01 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Leeds beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Burnley attack 0.83 / defence 1.56, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leeds 61% | Draw 22% | Burnley 17%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 50%, Burnley 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leeds's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Burnley's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leeds 1.75 PPG, Burnley 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leeds win broke the near-deadlock. Leeds (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights