🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

West Ham cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ipswich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham beat Ipswich 1-3 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 0.86 xG and West Ham 2.01 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. West Ham outscored their 2.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.61 / defence 1.56 against West Ham attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 15% | Draw 21% | West Ham 64%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 60%, West Ham 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

West Ham's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.29 PPG, West Ham 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights