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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Tottenham run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ipswich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tottenham beat Ipswich 1-4 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 0.70 xG and Tottenham 2.38 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Tottenham outscored their 2.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.56 / defence 1.39 against Tottenham attack 1.13 / defence 0.83, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 9% | Draw 17% | Tottenham 74%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 57%, Tottenham 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Tottenham's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.46 PPG, Tottenham 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights