Ipswich 1-2 Southampton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Southampton at 43%, yet in-form Ipswich provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ipswich vs Southampton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ipswich and Southampton meet at Portman Road in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ipswich's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ipswich's home record at Portman Road: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Southampton (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Southampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Southampton away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Ipswich's favour (0.70 vs 0.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ipswich 2W, Southampton 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ipswich goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Southampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 59% versus Southampton 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 56% | Southampton 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.00 xG and Southampton 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.557 / defence 1.333 | Southampton attack 0.648 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.553. Ipswich's attack strength of 0.557 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Southampton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Ipswich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Ipswich games / 23 Southampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 27% | Draw 30% | Southampton 43%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Southampton 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Southampton are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ipswich (0.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Southampton if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ipswich 40% | Southampton 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Southampton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 27% | Draw 30% | Southampton 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Ipswich 1.00 / Southampton 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 0.557 / def 1.333 | Southampton attack 0.648 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.553 • Poisson stance: Southampton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Southampton xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Southampton kick off?
Ipswich vs Southampton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Southampton?
Ipswich 1 - 2 Southampton.
Where is Ipswich vs Southampton being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Southampton part of?
Ipswich vs Southampton is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Southampton?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 27% chance of winning, Southampton a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Southampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Southampton?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ipswich and Southampton will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Southampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Southampton?
Record (3 meetings): Ipswich 2W | Draws 1 | Southampton 0W.
What form are Ipswich and Southampton in?
Ipswich (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Southampton (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ipswich's attack rating (0.56) and Southampton's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Southampton's attack (0.65x) against Ipswich's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Southampton Win
27%
3.75
30%
3.31
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.35
1.34
Southampton xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
7%
14.36
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Southampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Southampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.34 for Southampton, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Southampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 69 outings, Ipswich have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 31W 19D 19L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Southampton's form line: 27W 12D 30L from 69 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Southampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Ipswich against 1.35 for Southampton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ipswich have posted 1.74 PPG from 35 outings (17W 10D 8L).
On the road, Southampton have gone 10W 9D 16L from 35 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ipswich are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Southampton are on 1.43 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Southampton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Southampton in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 31W 19D 19L in their last 69 games (1.62 PPG), while Southampton have gone 27W 12D 30L in their last 69 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Southampton away?
Ipswich's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.74 PPG; Southampton away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ipswich have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Southampton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ipswich
3
Draws
1
Southampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Southampton?
From 6 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 2, Southampton have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Southampton last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Southampton 2-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Southampton?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Southampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 63%, Southampton 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ipswich) and 49% (Southampton).
On the defensive side: Southampton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Southampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Southampton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Ipswich's games and 57% of Southampton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ipswich vs Southampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ipswich's recent games and 49% of Southampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Southampton tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Southampton in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Southampton edge out Ipswich 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Southampton beat Ipswich 1-2 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.00 xG and Southampton 1.34 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.56 / defence 1.33 against Southampton attack 0.65 / defence 1.21, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 27% | Draw 30% | Southampton 43%, with Southampton to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 56%, Southampton 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Southampton's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.62 PPG, Southampton 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Southampton win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Southampton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.