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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nottingham Forest cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Ipswich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Ipswich 2-4 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.09 xG and Nottingham Forest 2.40 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Ipswich beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nottingham Forest outscored their 2.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.61 / defence 1.50 against Nottingham Forest attack 1.08 / defence 1.24, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 16% | Draw 18% | Nottingham Forest 66%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 58%, Nottingham Forest 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.39 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights