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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Manchester City run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Ipswich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester City beat Ipswich 0-6 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 0.88 xG and Manchester City 1.69 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Ipswich fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Manchester City outscored their 1.69 projection by 4.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.62 / defence 1.08 against Manchester City attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 18% | Draw 28% | Manchester City 55%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 56%, Manchester City 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Manchester City's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Manchester City (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights