Ipswich 0-2 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Liverpool at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Liverpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Ipswich welcome Liverpool to Portman Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ipswich have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Ipswich haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ipswich have posted 7W 3D 0L at Portman Road — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Ipswich are significantly better at Portman Road than their overall form suggests.
Liverpool — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Liverpool haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Liverpool have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ipswich 1.80 PPG, Liverpool 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ipswich register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Liverpool in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Ipswich in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Liverpool in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ipswich 63% and Liverpool 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 63% | Liverpool 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.49 xG and Liverpool 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Liverpool attack 1.124 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.833 / away 1.490. Data: 0 Ipswich games / 38 Liverpool games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ipswich 30% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 48%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | Liverpool 2.08. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Liverpool at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 70% | Liverpool 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 30% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Ipswich 1.49 / Liverpool 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Liverpool attack 1.124 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.833 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Liverpool xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Liverpool kick off?
Ipswich vs Liverpool kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Liverpool?
Ipswich 0 - 2 Liverpool.
Where is Ipswich vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Liverpool part of?
Ipswich vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 30% chance of winning, Liverpool a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Ipswich and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Liverpool?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ipswich and Liverpool in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Ipswich (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ipswich's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Liverpool's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Liverpool's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
30%
3.34
22%
4.53
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Ipswich xG
Total xG
3.41
1.93
Liverpool xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
15%
6.86
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
4%
22.93
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.93 for Liverpool, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ipswich's recent record stands at 21W 12D 5L from 38 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five. Ipswich haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 4L across 38 games — 2.16 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. Liverpool haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ipswich on 1.97 PPG, Liverpool on 2.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 13W 6D 0L from 19 games — 2.37 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.97 PPG overall — Ipswich are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Liverpool's away record stands at 9W 7D 3L across 19 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.26 scored and 1.08 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Liverpool in 68%.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Pre-Season
Liverpool
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 21W 12D 5L in their last 38 games (1.97 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 24W 10D 4L in their last 38 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Liverpool away?
Ipswich's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 2.37 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ipswich
0
Draws
2
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Liverpool?
From 2 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 0, Liverpool have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Liverpool 4-1 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ipswich at 74%, Liverpool at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Ipswich and 63% for Liverpool. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Liverpool?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Ipswich's games and 74% of Liverpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ipswich vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Ipswich's matches and 63% of Liverpool's.
Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ipswich.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Ipswich 0-2 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.49 xG and Liverpool 1.93 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ipswich fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Liverpool attack 1.12 / defence 0.95, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 30% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 48%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 63%, Liverpool 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Liverpool's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.97 PPG, Liverpool 2.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liverpool win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Liverpool (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.