Ipswich vs Crystal Palace – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ipswich's attack at 0.67x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
25%
4.07
30%
3.31
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.61
1.53
Crystal Palace xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
5%
18.77
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.53 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.