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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Ipswich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal beat Ipswich 0-4 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 0.71 xG and Arsenal 2.36 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Arsenal outscored their 2.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.67 / defence 1.58 against Arsenal attack 1.05 / defence 0.72, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 9% | Draw 17% | Arsenal 74%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 60%, Arsenal 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Arsenal's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights