Hull City vs Nottingham Forest – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hull City at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Nottingham Forest encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hull City host Nottingham Forest at MKM Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 2 December 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Hull City have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hull City have posted 3W 7D 0L at MKM Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MKM Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nottingham Forest stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Hull City have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hull City, 1 for Nottingham Forest and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hull City in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 57% versus Nottingham Forest 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 53% | Nottingham Forest 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.46 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.899 / defence 1.088 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.995 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.170. Data: 9 Hull City games / 47 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 42% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 33%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Nottingham Forest 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 50% | Nottingham Forest 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 42% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Hull City 1.46 / Nottingham Forest 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.899 / def 1.088 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.995 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Hull City (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Nottingham Forest xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Hull City vs Nottingham Forest is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Wednesday 2 December 2026 at MKM Stadium.
Where is Hull City vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Hull City vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 42% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hull City and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Nottingham Forest?
Record (2 meetings): Hull City 0W | Draws 1 | Nottingham Forest 1W.
What form are Hull City and Nottingham Forest in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.90) and Nottingham Forest's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.91
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.72
1.27
Nottingham Forest xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
8%
13.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hull City and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Hull City and 1.27 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hull City's recent record stands at 20W 13D 14L from 47 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 21L across 47 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hull City by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nottingham Forest heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hull City have managed 9W 9D 6L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nottingham Forest's away record stands at 8W 5D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.15 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 20W 13D 14L in their last 47 games (1.55 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 12W 14D 21L in their last 47 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Hull City's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.50 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Hull City or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hull City and Nottingham Forest runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hull City
1
Draws
1
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Nottingham Forest?
From 2 meetings on record, Hull City have won 0, Nottingham Forest have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Hull City 1-1 Nottingham Forest.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 58%, Nottingham Forest 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Hull City) and 62% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Nottingham Forest?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Hull City's games and 54% of Nottingham Forest's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Hull City's recent games and 62% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.