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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Fulham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Wolves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Wolves 3-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.29 xG and Wolves 0.84 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wolves landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.91 / defence 0.93 against Wolves attack 0.75 / defence 0.97, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 47% | Draw 29% | Wolves 24%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 55%, Wolves 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Wolves's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.32 PPG, Wolves 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights