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Shock result as West Ham defy the odds to beat Fulham 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham beat Fulham 0-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 2.18 xG and West Ham 1.36 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fulham fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against West Ham attack 1.02 / defence 1.30, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 55% | Draw 24% | West Ham 22%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a West Ham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 59%, West Ham 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

West Ham's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.42 PPG, West Ham 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. West Ham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights