Fulham vs Tottenham – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fulham at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Tottenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Tottenham travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 6 January 2027, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fulham stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Tottenham have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Tottenham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Tottenham have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Fulham) versus 1.30 (Tottenham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Fulham, 3 for Tottenham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Fulham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fulham in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Tottenham in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 52% versus Tottenham 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 50% | Tottenham 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.53 xG and Tottenham 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.094 / defence 1.262 | Tottenham attack 0.743 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.301. Data: 42 Fulham games / 42 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 43% | Draw 29% | Tottenham 29%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Tottenham 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Tottenham 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Jan 2027, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 43% | Draw 29% | Tottenham 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Fulham 1.53 / Tottenham 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.094 / def 1.262 | Tottenham attack 0.743 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Fulham (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Tottenham xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Tottenham kick off?
Fulham vs Tottenham is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Wednesday 6 January 2027 at Craven Cottage.
Where is Fulham vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Tottenham part of?
Fulham vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 43% chance of winning, Tottenham a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fulham and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Tottenham?
Record (8 meetings): Fulham 4W | Draws 1 | Tottenham 3W.
What form are Fulham and Tottenham in?
Fulham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Tottenham (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.09) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.49
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.75
1.22
Tottenham xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
6%
16.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Fulham and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Fulham and 1.22 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fulham's recent record stands at 15W 8D 19L from 42 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 10W 13D 19L across 42 games — 1.02 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Tottenham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.26 PPG, Tottenham on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 11W 2D 8L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Fulham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tottenham's away record stands at 7W 6D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.14 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Early Season
Tottenham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 15W 8D 19L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 10W 13D 19L in their last 42 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Tottenham away?
Fulham's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.67 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fulham have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Fulham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fulham
1
Draws
3
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Tottenham?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 4, Tottenham have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Fulham 2-1 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Tottenham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 57%, Tottenham 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Fulham) and 62% (Tottenham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tottenham in 33%; Tottenham in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Fulham's recent matches and 48% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Fulham's matches and 62% of Tottenham's.
Do Fulham and Tottenham tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Tottenham in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.