🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Fulham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Tottenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Tottenham 2-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.16 xG and Tottenham 1.84 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tottenham landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.89 / defence 1.02 against Tottenham attack 1.21 / defence 0.90, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 24% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 53%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Fulham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 61%, Tottenham 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Tottenham's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.35 PPG, Tottenham 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights