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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Sunderland 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Sunderland 1-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.42 xG and Sunderland 0.76 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.99 / defence 0.88 against Sunderland attack 0.75 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 52% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 20%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 55%, Sunderland 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Sunderland's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.33 PPG, Sunderland 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights