Fulham vs Nottingham Forest – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Nottingham Forest encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Fulham welcome Nottingham Forest to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 10 February 2027 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Fulham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fulham: 7 wins from 10 previous clashes against 2 for Nottingham Forest, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Fulham a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fulham in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 53% versus Nottingham Forest 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 47% | Nottingham Forest 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.58 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.973 / defence 1.116 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.995 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.170. Data: 47 Fulham games / 47 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 44% | Draw 25% | Nottingham Forest 32%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Nottingham Forest 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 50% | Nottingham Forest 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Feb 2027, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 44% | Draw 25% | Nottingham Forest 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Fulham 1.58 / Nottingham Forest 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.973 / def 1.116 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.995 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Fulham (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Nottingham Forest xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Wednesday 10 February 2027 at Craven Cottage.
Where is Fulham vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 44% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fulham and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Nottingham Forest?
Record (10 meetings): Fulham 7W | Draws 1 | Nottingham Forest 2W.
What form are Fulham and Nottingham Forest in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fulham's attack at 0.97x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
44%
2.28
25%
4.06
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.88
1.30
Nottingham Forest xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
7%
15.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Fulham and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Fulham and 1.30 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 17W 10D 20L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 12W 14D 21L from 47 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.30 PPG, Nottingham Forest on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (12W 3D 8L).
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 8W 4D 11L from 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.15 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 12W 14D 21L in their last 47 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Fulham's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.70 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fulham and Nottingham Forest runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Dec 2023, when Fulham won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Nottingham Forest specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Fulham
1
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Nottingham Forest?
From 10 meetings on record, Fulham have won 7, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nottingham Forest 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Nottingham Forest?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 56%, Nottingham Forest 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fulham) and 65% (Nottingham Forest). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Nottingham Forest in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Fulham's recent matches and 52% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Fulham's matches and 65% of Nottingham Forest's.
Do Fulham and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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