Fulham vs Nottingham Forest – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Nottingham Forest fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Fulham welcome Nottingham Forest to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 10 February 2027 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Fulham) versus 1.30 (Nottingham Forest). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fulham register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Nottingham Forest in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fulham: 7 wins from 10 previous clashes against 2 for Nottingham Forest, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Fulham a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fulham in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 52% versus Nottingham Forest 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 50% | Nottingham Forest 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.52 xG and Nottingham Forest 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.054 / defence 1.273 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.260 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.275. Nottingham Forest have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Fulham games / 43 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 28% | Draw 22% | Nottingham Forest 49%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 3.57 | Draw 4.55 | Nottingham Forest 2.04. Nottingham Forest hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nottingham Forest at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Nottingham Forest 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Feb 2027, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 28% | Draw 22% | Nottingham Forest 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Fulham 1.52 / Nottingham Forest 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.054 / def 1.273 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.260 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Nottingham Forest xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Wednesday 10 February 2027 at Craven Cottage.
Where is Fulham vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 28% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Fulham and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Nottingham Forest?
Record (10 meetings): Fulham 7W | Draws 1 | Nottingham Forest 2W.
What form are Fulham and Nottingham Forest in?
Fulham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.05x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
28%
3.53
22%
4.48
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.57
2.05
Nottingham Forest xG
3.53
28%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
13%
7.74
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
4%
27.29
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Fulham and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Fulham and 2.05 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 15W 8D 19L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 11W 13D 18L from 42 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.26 PPG, Nottingham Forest on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (11W 2D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Fulham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 8W 4D 9L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.17 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Early Season
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 15W 8D 19L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Fulham's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.67 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fulham and Nottingham Forest runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Dec 2023, when Fulham won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Nottingham Forest specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Fulham
1
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Nottingham Forest?
From 10 meetings on record, Fulham have won 7, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nottingham Forest 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Nottingham Forest?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 57%, Nottingham Forest 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Fulham and 67% for Nottingham Forest. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Fulham's recent matches and 52% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Fulham's matches and 67% of Nottingham Forest's.
Do Fulham and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.