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Shock result as Fulham defy the odds to beat Nottingham Forest 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Nottingham Forest 2-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.42 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.60 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.90 / defence 1.02 against Nottingham Forest attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 33% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 41%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Fulham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Nottingham Forest 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.34 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights