Fulham vs Newcastle – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Newcastle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus Newcastle in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 7 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fulham have posted 5W 1D 4L at Craven Cottage — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Newcastle (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Newcastle have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Fulham, 1.40 for Newcastle — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fulham lead 3W to 5W over the last 8 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Fulham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Newcastle half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 52% versus Newcastle 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 48% | Newcastle 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.65 xG and Newcastle 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.970 / defence 1.119 | Newcastle attack 1.008 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.171. Data: 47 Fulham games / 46 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 45% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 31%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Newcastle 3.23. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 50% | Newcastle 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 45% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Fulham 1.65 / Newcastle 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.970 / def 1.119 | Newcastle attack 1.008 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Fulham (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Newcastle xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Newcastle kick off?
Fulham vs Newcastle is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Craven Cottage.
Where is Fulham vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Newcastle part of?
Fulham vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 45% chance of winning, Newcastle a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fulham and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Newcastle?
Record (8 meetings): Fulham 3W | Draws 0 | Newcastle 5W.
What form are Fulham and Newcastle in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Newcastle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fulham's attack at 0.97x the league average against Newcastle's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Newcastle's attack (1.01x) against Fulham's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
45%
2.23
25%
4.07
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.97
1.32
Newcastle xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
6%
16.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Fulham and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Fulham and 1.32 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fulham come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 9D 20L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Newcastle sit at 1.30 PPG from 46 outings (17W 9D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Fulham against 1.30 for Newcastle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fulham's home form reads 12W 3D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Newcastle have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (6W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.41 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Newcastle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 17W 9D 20L in their last 46 games (1.30 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 17W 9D 20L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Newcastle away?
Fulham's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.70 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 1-4 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Newcastle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fulham
0
Draws
5
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Newcastle?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 3, Newcastle have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Fulham 2-0 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Newcastle?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 56%, Newcastle 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fulham) and 48% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Newcastle in 30%; Newcastle in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Newcastle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Fulham's recent matches and 52% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Fulham's recent games and 48% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Newcastle tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Newcastle in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.