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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fulham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Newcastle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Newcastle 2-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.28 xG and Newcastle 0.99 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Newcastle landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.92 / defence 0.92 against Newcastle attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 42% | Draw 31% | Newcastle 27%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 55%, Newcastle 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Newcastle's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.37 PPG, Newcastle 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights