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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Manchester City defy the odds to beat Fulham 4-5.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester City beat Fulham 4-5 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.16 xG and Manchester City 0.98 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 4-5 for 9 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Manchester City outscored their 0.98 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.98 / defence 0.80 against Manchester City attack 0.99 / defence 0.79, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 40% | Draw 29% | Manchester City 31%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Manchester City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 55%, Manchester City 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Manchester City's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.39. That form edge translated into the three points. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Manchester City (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights