Fulham 0-4 Manchester City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Manchester City (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fulham face Manchester City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Manchester City make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Fulham (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Craven Cottage this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Manchester City have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Manchester City's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Manchester City arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Manchester City, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–5 with Manchester City winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Manchester City have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Manchester City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 53% versus Manchester City 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 63% | Manchester City 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.10 xG and Manchester City 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.932 / defence 0.869 | Manchester City attack 1.460 / defence 0.655. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.471. Manchester City's defence strength of 0.655 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Manchester City have an above-average attack strength of 1.460 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 74 Fulham games / 73 Manchester City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 21% | Draw 24% | Manchester City 55%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Manchester City 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Manchester City (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Manchester City as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 50% | Manchester City 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Manchester City | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 21% | Draw 24% | Manchester City 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Fulham 1.10 / Manchester City 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.932 / def 0.869 | Manchester City attack 1.460 / def 0.655 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Manchester City (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Manchester City xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Manchester City kick off?
Fulham vs Manchester City kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Manchester City?
Fulham 0 - 4 Manchester City.
Where is Fulham vs Manchester City being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Manchester City part of?
Fulham vs Manchester City is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Manchester City?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 21% chance of winning, Manchester City a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Manchester City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Manchester City?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fulham and Manchester City will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Manchester City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Manchester City?
Record (3 meetings): Fulham 0W | Draws 0 | Manchester City 3W.
What form are Fulham and Manchester City in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Manchester City (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fulham's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Manchester City's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Manchester City's attack (1.46x) against Fulham's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 74/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Manchester City Win
21%
4.69
24%
4.14
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.96
1.86
Manchester City xG
4.69
21%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
15%
6.46
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
3%
30.27
18%
5.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Manchester City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Fulham and Manchester City expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Fulham and 1.86 for Manchester City, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Manchester City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 73 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 27W 14D 32L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Manchester City's form line: 53W 12D 8L from 73 games, 2.34 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Manchester City are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.58 PPG from 36 outings (17W 6D 13L).
On the road, Manchester City have gone 23W 6D 7L from 36 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Manchester City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Manchester City are on 2.48 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Manchester City in 60%.
Last 73 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Manchester City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Manchester City in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 27W 14D 32L in their last 73 games (1.30 PPG), while Manchester City have gone 53W 12D 8L in their last 73 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Manchester City away?
Manchester City's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.58 PPG; Manchester City away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Fulham or Manchester City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Manchester City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Manchester City have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Manchester City won 5-1 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Manchester City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Fulham
0
Draws
8
Manchester City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Manchester City?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 0, Manchester City have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Manchester City last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Manchester City 3-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Manchester City?
Manchester City have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 53%, Manchester City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fulham and 58% for Manchester City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Manchester City in 31%; Fulham have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Manchester City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Manchester City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Fulham's recent matches and 56% of Manchester City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Manchester City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fulham's matches and 58% of Manchester City's.
Dominant Manchester City run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Manchester City beat Fulham 0-4 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.10 xG and Manchester City 1.86 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Fulham fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Manchester City outscored their 1.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.93 / defence 0.87 against Manchester City attack 1.46 / defence 0.66, drawn from 74/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 21% | Draw 24% | Manchester City 55%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 63%, Manchester City 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Manchester City's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Manchester City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.