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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fulham and Liverpool share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham and Liverpool finished level at 2-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.81 xG and Liverpool 1.62 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.10 / defence 1.07 against Liverpool attack 1.21 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 41% | Draw 25% | Liverpool 33%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 54%, Liverpool 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Liverpool's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights