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Shock result as Fulham defy the odds to beat Liverpool 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Liverpool 3-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.16 xG and Liverpool 1.98 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against Liverpool attack 1.47 / defence 0.85, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 22% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 56%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Fulham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Liverpool 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Liverpool's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Fulham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm. Liverpool (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights