Fulham 2-1 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 50%, yet in-form Leicester provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fulham vs Leicester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus Leicester in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fulham have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Craven Cottage this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Leicester's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Leicester have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Leicester away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Leicester arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Fulham 2W, Leicester 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 5–3 with Fulham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Leicester goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 46% versus Leicester 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 62% | Leicester 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.79 xG and Leicester 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.984 / defence 1.001 | Leicester attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.437. Data: 39 Fulham games / 1 Leicester games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fulham 50% | Draw 24% | Leicester 25%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Leicester 4.00. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Leicester (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 50% | Leicester 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Leicester | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 50% | Draw 24% | Leicester 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Fulham 1.79 / Leicester 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.984 / def 1.001 | Leicester attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Fulham (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Leicester xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Leicester kick off?
Fulham vs Leicester kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Leicester?
Fulham 2 - 1 Leicester.
Where is Fulham vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Leicester part of?
Fulham vs Leicester is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 50% chance of winning, Leicester a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fulham and Leicester will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Leicester?
Record (2 meetings): Fulham 2W | Draws 0 | Leicester 0W.
What form are Fulham and Leicester in?
Fulham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Leicester (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fulham's attack at 0.98x the league average against Leicester's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Leicester's attack (0.85x) against Fulham's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.13
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.02
1.22
Leicester xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
4%
23.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Fulham and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Fulham and 1.22 for Leicester, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 13W 8D 18L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Leicester's form line: 24W 5D 10L from 39 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Leicester, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Leicester are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (9W 2D 8L).
On the road, Leicester have gone 10W 3D 6L from 19 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.95 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Early Season
Leicester
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Leicester in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 13W 8D 18L in their last 39 games (1.21 PPG), while Leicester have gone 24W 5D 10L in their last 39 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Leicester away?
Leicester's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.53 PPG; Leicester away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Fulham or Leicester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Leicester in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Fulham go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Leicester — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Fulham
0
Draws
0
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Leicester?
From 4 meetings on record, Fulham have won 4, Leicester have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Leicester last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Leicester 0-2 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Leicester?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 37%, Leicester 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Fulham and 58% for Leicester. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fulham have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Leicester?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Fulham's recent matches and 58% of Leicester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Leicester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Fulham's matches and 58% of Leicester's.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Leicester 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Leicester 2-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.79 xG and Leicester 1.22 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Leicester attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 50% | Draw 24% | Leicester 25%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 62%, Leicester 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Leicester's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Leicester arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Fulham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Leicester (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.