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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fulham and Ipswich share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 20, as Fulham and Ipswich drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.56 xG and Ipswich 1.14 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ipswich outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Ipswich attack 0.75 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 45% | Draw 30% | Ipswich 25%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Ipswich 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Ipswich's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.33 PPG, Ipswich 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights